More and more people start looking for a gift not in Google, but in ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini. Adobe expects visits to US online stores coming in via such AI assistants to rise 130% this holiday season compared with last year. Those visitors also buy more often and spend more per purchase. These are US figures, but you see the same movement in Europe. What does that mean for your online store, and what can you still arrange before Black Friday?
The numbers
Adobe bases its forecast on more than a trillion visits to US online stores. The key points:
| What | Adobe forecast (US, November–December 2026) |
|---|---|
| Total online sales | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% on last year |
| Visits via AI assistants | Up 130% on last year |
| Behaviour of those visitors | Buy more often and spend more per purchase |
| Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday | $47.5 billion, over 17% of the season |
Adobe only counts visits that go from a standalone AI assistant such as ChatGPT or Claude to an online store. Conversations with an assistant inside a store (as on large marketplaces) don't count, because those people are already there.
Important to add: most people use AI for research, not for checkout. They ask for advice, compare and then click through to the store. That's exactly where your opportunity lies.
Why these visitors buy better
Someone arriving via an AI assistant has often done the comparison already. They asked a question, saw a few options and click through on the product that fits best. That's a warmer visitor than someone arriving via a general search or a social ad.
That's also why it's a shame when that visitor lands on a page that doesn't match: a different price than the assistant mentioned, a product that's sold out or a page that doesn't answer the question.
What decides whether an AI assistant mentions your product?
Nobody knows the exact recipe, but a few things demonstrably play a role:
- Product data that's correct and complete. Title, price, stock, size, colour, material. AI systems read these as separate data points, not just from a block of text.
- An up-to-date product feed. Many assistants draw on the same sources as Google Shopping. A feed with errors or old prices costs you visibility.
- Pages that answer real questions. Who is this for, how does it differ from the cheaper version, how long does it last? People ask assistants these questions; if the answer is on your page, you give it a reason to mention you.
- Reviews and mentions elsewhere. Assistants look beyond your own site: reviews, comparison sites and articles count.
- A technically accessible site. If you block AI crawlers in your robots.txt, assistants can read your pages less well. Make a deliberate choice there.
Checklist before Black Friday
- Review your product feed in Google Merchant Center: disapproved products, missing attributes, mismatched prices.
- Add attributes as separate fields, not only in the description: colour, size, material, audience.
- Add structured data to your product pages (Product, Offer and Review schema), so price and stock are unambiguous.
- Add a short Q&A section to your key products with the questions customers actually ask you.
- Check your robots.txt for AI crawlers and decide deliberately what you allow.
- Measure AI traffic. Create a custom channel group in GA4 for visits from chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai, gemini.google.com and claude.ai, so you see what it brings in.
- Keep stock and prices live during the sale weeks. An assistant quoting an old price produces a disappointed visitor.
And the Netherlands?
Adobe doesn't publish comparable figures for the Netherlands. But you see the same movement: ChatGPT has millions of Dutch users, ChatGPT ads have been available here since late August, and large Dutch retailers are building their own AI assistants. For most online stores, the share of AI traffic is still small, but it's growing and it converts well. Preparing now costs little; catching up when everyone does it costs more.
Want to know how to prepare your online store? Read more about building and improving online stores, about advertising in ChatGPT, or get in touch.
Frequently asked questions
How much is traffic via AI assistants growing this holiday season?
Adobe expects visits via AI assistants to US online stores to rise 130% in November and December 2026 compared with a year earlier. No comparable figures have been published for the Netherlands.
Do visitors via AI buy more often?
According to Adobe, yes. Visitors arriving via an AI assistant buy more often and spend more per purchase than visitors from other channels. They've often done the comparison already.
Are people already checking out in ChatGPT?
Not much yet. Most people use AI to research and compare, then check out in the store itself. Checkout inside AI assistants is being tested, mainly in the US.
How do I make an AI assistant mention my product?
There's no guarantee, but complete and correct product data, an up-to-date product feed, pages that answer real customer questions and good reviews elsewhere increase the chance.
How do I measure traffic from ChatGPT in GA4?
Create a custom channel group in GA4 based on source, with domains such as chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai, gemini.google.com and claude.ai. Then you see that traffic separately from ordinary referrals.
Should I allow AI crawlers on my online store?
That's a choice. If you block them, assistants can read your pages less well and are less likely to mention your product. If you allow them, your content is used in answers. For most online stores, visibility weighs heavier.
Sources: Adobe Analytics, 2026 holiday shopping forecast (28 September 2026); OpenAI (August 2026).
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